South Florida home builder begins fund to stockpile land
Photos South Florida home builder Sergio Pino has launched a fund to take advantage of depressed housing prices and buy land in Miami-Dade County.
In a statement, Pino said the land will be used for new homes when the market can support it. ''Some day, after doomsday, housing will be in demand again,'' Pino said. ``We want to stockpile valuable land.''
The new Century Opportunity Fund has already raised $100 million of a $500 million goal, the statement said. The fund has the same board and managers as Pino's Century Partners Group, whose unit Century Homebuilders has built nearly 10,000 homes. One of Century's projects may be a beneficiary of the new investment fund: Doral Grand, a mixed-use project zoned for 4,600 homes.
Pino joins numerous other developers who recently have created funds to buy up real estate, such as commercial real estate investors William Holly, Michael Adler and condo developer Jorge Perez.
From Miami Herald 11-6-2008
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Thursday, September 11, 2008
H.U.D
El presidente George W. Bush firmo en el mes de Agosto una ley, que le permitirá a la administración de vivienda federal H.U.D (Housing Urban Development) a prestar ayuda hipotecaria a los prestatarios. El programa esperanza (Hope) ofrece ayudar a familias en dificultades, que no pueden pagar sus hipotecas, y podrán ser elegibles a refinanciar sus propiedades con hipotecas mas económicas aseguradas por la FHA (Federal Housing Administration).
Bajo la nueva ley de la administración de vivienda federal, los propietarios que han tenido atrasos en sus hipotecas, podrán ser elegibles a refinanciar. Siempre y cuando el atraso del pago de la hipoteca ha sido causado solamente por incremento en las tasas de interés durante Junio del 2005 a Diciembre del 2009. Este nuevo programa será implementado a partir del 1 de Octubre del 2008 hasta el 30 de septiembre del 2011.
Los requisitos para el programa esperanza (HOPE) son los siguientes:
• Todos los nuevos prestamos y las refinanciaciones, estén basados en la capacidad de pago a largo plazo de una familia, para reembolsar la hipoteca.
• La administración de vivienda federal FHA, solo permite refinanciar la propiedad en la que viven, casa primaria (Primary Residence).
• No tener casa secundaria.
• La hipoteca debe haber sido originada antes del 1 de Enero del 2008.
• Demostrar que no puede seguir pagando su préstamo actual, y que los atrasos en el pago de la hipoteca no fueron intencionales.
Ahora el HUD, el departamento del tesoro, la FDIC y la reserva federal formaran una junta directiva y trabajaran juntos para establecer nuevas normas adicionales al programa.
Muchas familias están teniendo dificultades con sus propiedades, por que sus hipotecas aumentaron las tasas de interés, o por que sus propiedades valen mucho menos de lo que ellos la compraron. Por eso los préstamos del FHA ofrecen una alternativa diferente de la ejecución Hipotecaria (Foreclosure) a las entidades crediticias. Por ejemplo: Una familia le debe al banco $300,000 y el valor de la propiedad hoy es $ 250,000 y no puede cumplir con los pagos mensuales.
Muchas personas se ven forzadas a dejar sus casas y perderlas en la ejecución hipotecaria (Foreclousure). El banco puede reducir el saldo de balance del principal hipotecario hasta un 90% del nuevo valor de la propiedad, ósea $225,000. En muchos casos, estas reducciones le costaran menos a los prestamistas, que los costos asociados en una ejecución hipotecaria, y por esta razón ellos estarán dispuestos a perder el balance de diferencia y muchas familias podrán permanecer en sus hogares.
Las nuevas características de los préstamos FHA son:
• La hipoteca es a una tasa fija (Fix Rate) a 30 Años.
• No tiene penalidad por pago adelantado de la deuda. (No pre-payment penalty)
• La cantidad máxima de un préstamo será hasta por $ 550,440
• La cuota inicial o entrada (Down Payment) será del 3.5%
• El avaluó o tasación (Appraisal) debe ser por tasadores aprobados por la FHA.
• El programa de asistencia de entrada o cuota inicial Nehemiah (Down Payment), ya no se podrá hacer más a partir del 1 de Octubre.
Desde septiembre del 2007 cuando la FHA comenzó sus esfuerzos por estabilizar el mercado, ya ha asegurado más de $93 mil millones en hipotecas y le ha permitido a mas de 290,000 familias a mantener sus hogares. Y además ya tienen listos otros $300 mil millones para los nuevos préstamos que se generen en el futuro.
Este programa le permitirá a muchas familias a continuar viviendo en sus inmuebles, y no se verán obligados a perder sus propiedades. Esto ayudara a que el inventario de propiedades en el mercado no siga aumentando y a generar estabilidad y confianza. La solución a la crisis inmobiliaria es muy clara, permitirles a las familias a permanecer en sus casas, e incentivar a los compradores de su primera casa o casa primaria a cumplir el sueño americano de ser propietarios. No debemos olvidar que después de la tormenta llega la calma, y ya estamos viendo una luz en el camino. Este país lo hace grande su gente, por eso sigue adelante y ten fe.
Por David Gomez
"> david@RealEstatehoy.comEsta
Copyright © 2003 - 2006 Real Estate HOY, Inc.-RealEstateHOY.com "Portal De Noticias De Bienes Raices Del Sur De La Florida"
Bajo la nueva ley de la administración de vivienda federal, los propietarios que han tenido atrasos en sus hipotecas, podrán ser elegibles a refinanciar. Siempre y cuando el atraso del pago de la hipoteca ha sido causado solamente por incremento en las tasas de interés durante Junio del 2005 a Diciembre del 2009. Este nuevo programa será implementado a partir del 1 de Octubre del 2008 hasta el 30 de septiembre del 2011.
Los requisitos para el programa esperanza (HOPE) son los siguientes:
• Todos los nuevos prestamos y las refinanciaciones, estén basados en la capacidad de pago a largo plazo de una familia, para reembolsar la hipoteca.
• La administración de vivienda federal FHA, solo permite refinanciar la propiedad en la que viven, casa primaria (Primary Residence).
• No tener casa secundaria.
• La hipoteca debe haber sido originada antes del 1 de Enero del 2008.
• Demostrar que no puede seguir pagando su préstamo actual, y que los atrasos en el pago de la hipoteca no fueron intencionales.
Ahora el HUD, el departamento del tesoro, la FDIC y la reserva federal formaran una junta directiva y trabajaran juntos para establecer nuevas normas adicionales al programa.
Muchas familias están teniendo dificultades con sus propiedades, por que sus hipotecas aumentaron las tasas de interés, o por que sus propiedades valen mucho menos de lo que ellos la compraron. Por eso los préstamos del FHA ofrecen una alternativa diferente de la ejecución Hipotecaria (Foreclosure) a las entidades crediticias. Por ejemplo: Una familia le debe al banco $300,000 y el valor de la propiedad hoy es $ 250,000 y no puede cumplir con los pagos mensuales.
Muchas personas se ven forzadas a dejar sus casas y perderlas en la ejecución hipotecaria (Foreclousure). El banco puede reducir el saldo de balance del principal hipotecario hasta un 90% del nuevo valor de la propiedad, ósea $225,000. En muchos casos, estas reducciones le costaran menos a los prestamistas, que los costos asociados en una ejecución hipotecaria, y por esta razón ellos estarán dispuestos a perder el balance de diferencia y muchas familias podrán permanecer en sus hogares.
Las nuevas características de los préstamos FHA son:
• La hipoteca es a una tasa fija (Fix Rate) a 30 Años.
• No tiene penalidad por pago adelantado de la deuda. (No pre-payment penalty)
• La cantidad máxima de un préstamo será hasta por $ 550,440
• La cuota inicial o entrada (Down Payment) será del 3.5%
• El avaluó o tasación (Appraisal) debe ser por tasadores aprobados por la FHA.
• El programa de asistencia de entrada o cuota inicial Nehemiah (Down Payment), ya no se podrá hacer más a partir del 1 de Octubre.
Desde septiembre del 2007 cuando la FHA comenzó sus esfuerzos por estabilizar el mercado, ya ha asegurado más de $93 mil millones en hipotecas y le ha permitido a mas de 290,000 familias a mantener sus hogares. Y además ya tienen listos otros $300 mil millones para los nuevos préstamos que se generen en el futuro.
Este programa le permitirá a muchas familias a continuar viviendo en sus inmuebles, y no se verán obligados a perder sus propiedades. Esto ayudara a que el inventario de propiedades en el mercado no siga aumentando y a generar estabilidad y confianza. La solución a la crisis inmobiliaria es muy clara, permitirles a las familias a permanecer en sus casas, e incentivar a los compradores de su primera casa o casa primaria a cumplir el sueño americano de ser propietarios. No debemos olvidar que después de la tormenta llega la calma, y ya estamos viendo una luz en el camino. Este país lo hace grande su gente, por eso sigue adelante y ten fe.
Por David Gomez
"> david@RealEstatehoy.comEsta
Copyright © 2003 - 2006 Real Estate HOY, Inc.-RealEstateHOY.com "Portal De Noticias De Bienes Raices Del Sur De La Florida"
Saturday, June 14, 2008
Se Remataran Menos Casas En La Florida
Se rematarán menos casas en la Florida
MONICA HATCHER
The Miami Herald
Em definitiva ¿hay una luz al final del túnel?
La firma de información sobre embargos hipotecarios RealtyTrac informó ayer una notable disminución en el número de casas del sur de la Florida que presentaron documentos de embargos hipotecarios el mes pasado, el primer alivio de este tipo en medio de un aluvión de pagos morosos que comenzaron hace 18 meses.
Aunque el porcentaje de casas que irán a licitación todavía sigue siendo mucho más alto que el año pasado, los condados Miami-Dade y Broward experimentaron una caída de 17 por ciento en embargos hipotecarios entre abril y mayo.
Marc Ben-Ezra, abogado de Fort Lauderdale que se encarga de embargos hipotecarios en la Florida, dijo que los números son probablemente una aberración, dado que la mayor parte de los economistas pronostican que los embargos hipotecarios continuarán aumentando en lo que queda de año, a medida que el mercado laboral se deteriora, y los precios de las casas, sobre todo en mercados supersaturados, siguen bajando. Sin embargo, cuánto podrán aumentar es difícil de pronosticar, dijo Ben-Ezra.
''El mes pasado fue el mes más ocupado que hemos tenido con respecto a trabajos nuevos. Los resultados de un mes no significa que haya surgido una tendencia de que los casos disminuirán'', dijo Ben-Ezra.
Daren Blomquist, portavoz de RealtyTrac, manifestó estar de acuerdo, y dijo que los embargos hipotecarios seguirán teniendo un notable impacto.
Dentro de la Florida, sin embargo, el Condado Broward quedó en sexto lugar, y Miami-Dade quedó noveno, detrás de los condados Lee, St. Lucie, Osceola, Hernando y Charlotte. En general, el índice de embargos hipotecarios de la Florida aumentó 7 por ciento entre abril y mayo.
En Miami-Dade, RealtyTrac contó 4,874 embargos hipotecarios en mayo, lo que equivale a uno de cada 196 casas. Aunque hay una disminución con relación al mes anterior, la cifra fue 11 por ciento más alta que hace un año. Por su parte, en Broward, el número total de embargos hipotecarios fue de 4,449, lo que equivale a uno de cada 176 casas, y 50 por ciento más alto que el año pasado.
La información de RealtyTrac incluye lis pendens, también llamados preembargos hipotecarios, casas que están programadas para licitación, y propiedades que pasaron a los bancos.
Las cifras son un reflejo de una caída en el número total de lis pendens que se presentaron en ambos condados. En Broward, el número de lis pendens --que indica que comenzó una demanda por el título de una propiedad-- disminuyó un 4.4 por ciento, de los 3,837 que se presentaron en abril a 3,668 en mayo. En Miami-Dade, el número cayó 4.87 por ciento, de 4,478 a 4,260.
Las estadísticas que mantienen los condados no incluyen información sobre los embargos hipotecarios presentados por los dueños de casas y las asociaciones de condominios, así como otros que discuten los títulos. De igual modo, tampoco incluyen las casas listas para pasar a licitación ni que pasaron a las compañías de préstamos durante la venta.
mhatcher@MiamiHerald.com
MONICA HATCHER
The Miami Herald
Em definitiva ¿hay una luz al final del túnel?
La firma de información sobre embargos hipotecarios RealtyTrac informó ayer una notable disminución en el número de casas del sur de la Florida que presentaron documentos de embargos hipotecarios el mes pasado, el primer alivio de este tipo en medio de un aluvión de pagos morosos que comenzaron hace 18 meses.
Aunque el porcentaje de casas que irán a licitación todavía sigue siendo mucho más alto que el año pasado, los condados Miami-Dade y Broward experimentaron una caída de 17 por ciento en embargos hipotecarios entre abril y mayo.
Marc Ben-Ezra, abogado de Fort Lauderdale que se encarga de embargos hipotecarios en la Florida, dijo que los números son probablemente una aberración, dado que la mayor parte de los economistas pronostican que los embargos hipotecarios continuarán aumentando en lo que queda de año, a medida que el mercado laboral se deteriora, y los precios de las casas, sobre todo en mercados supersaturados, siguen bajando. Sin embargo, cuánto podrán aumentar es difícil de pronosticar, dijo Ben-Ezra.
''El mes pasado fue el mes más ocupado que hemos tenido con respecto a trabajos nuevos. Los resultados de un mes no significa que haya surgido una tendencia de que los casos disminuirán'', dijo Ben-Ezra.
Daren Blomquist, portavoz de RealtyTrac, manifestó estar de acuerdo, y dijo que los embargos hipotecarios seguirán teniendo un notable impacto.
Dentro de la Florida, sin embargo, el Condado Broward quedó en sexto lugar, y Miami-Dade quedó noveno, detrás de los condados Lee, St. Lucie, Osceola, Hernando y Charlotte. En general, el índice de embargos hipotecarios de la Florida aumentó 7 por ciento entre abril y mayo.
En Miami-Dade, RealtyTrac contó 4,874 embargos hipotecarios en mayo, lo que equivale a uno de cada 196 casas. Aunque hay una disminución con relación al mes anterior, la cifra fue 11 por ciento más alta que hace un año. Por su parte, en Broward, el número total de embargos hipotecarios fue de 4,449, lo que equivale a uno de cada 176 casas, y 50 por ciento más alto que el año pasado.
La información de RealtyTrac incluye lis pendens, también llamados preembargos hipotecarios, casas que están programadas para licitación, y propiedades que pasaron a los bancos.
Las cifras son un reflejo de una caída en el número total de lis pendens que se presentaron en ambos condados. En Broward, el número de lis pendens --que indica que comenzó una demanda por el título de una propiedad-- disminuyó un 4.4 por ciento, de los 3,837 que se presentaron en abril a 3,668 en mayo. En Miami-Dade, el número cayó 4.87 por ciento, de 4,478 a 4,260.
Las estadísticas que mantienen los condados no incluyen información sobre los embargos hipotecarios presentados por los dueños de casas y las asociaciones de condominios, así como otros que discuten los títulos. De igual modo, tampoco incluyen las casas listas para pasar a licitación ni que pasaron a las compañías de préstamos durante la venta.
mhatcher@MiamiHerald.com
Saturday, May 10, 2008
Crisis del Vendedor – Oportunidad del Comprador
Todas las industrias experimentan ciclos, y los Bienes raíces no son ajenos a esta tendencia. Entre el 2001 y el 2006 se experimento un crecimiento desmesurado del valor de las propiedades, lo que se conoce como especulación, y hoy muchas personas están pagando las consecuencias.
Los bienes raíces siempre han sido inversiones a mediano y largo plazo, donde los rendimientos aproximados han sido del 6% al 8% históricamente. Las propiedades pueden doblar su valor en un término de 10 a 15 años. Por eso si miramos la ciudad de Miami a mediados de los 80’S, donde se vivió una crisis en el sector de la vivienda, muchos la aprovecharon en aquel momento y compraron apartamentos en la playa por solo $60,000, y si hoy miramos el mismo apartamento, su valor se ha cuadruplicado con el tiempo.
En el próximo cuadro podremos ver un comparativo de un mercado especulativo vs uno Real. Tomaremos una propiedad de $100,000 y calcularemos rendimientos de especulación del 20% Anual contra crecimientos más realistas del 8% Anuales. Podremos ver la diferencia en el tiempo, y como cada año que pasa, el desbalance aumenta.
(El cuadro es un estimado, que busca mostrar la diferencia de un mercado especulativo contra uno real)
Valor Crecimientos del 20% Crecimientos del 8% Diferencia
$ 100,000
2002 $ 120,000 $ 108,000 $ 12,000
2003 $ 144,000 $ 116,640 $ 27,360
2004 $ 172,800 $ 125,971 $ 46,829
2005 $ 207,360 $ 136,049 $ 71,311
2006 $ 248,832 $ 146,933 $ 101,899
Ahora hagamos un análisis del cuadro anterior:
¿Que fue lo que paso en aquella época?
Muchas personas aprovecharon los préstamos de alto riesgo (subprime) donde los bancos le dieron la oportunidad a mucha gente de hacer préstamos con muy poca documentación, para comprar su primera, segunda y hasta su casa de inversión. Al comienzo de este proceso de especulación, la gente compro con cautela, pero al ver que sus propiedades subían vertiginosamente de valor, se entro en una euforia colectiva, y las personas pensaron que podían hacer dinero de una forma fácil y rápida. A partir de este momento muchos no se conformaron con tener su casa propia sino que se aventuraron a comprar más propiedades de las que podían mantener.
Otros no fueron bien asesorados y compraron con tasa variables en el tiempo y algunos tomaron los prestamos con amortización negativa, sin saber a que se enfrentarían en el futuro. Hoy muchas de estas personas están perdiendo sus propiedades.
¿Quiénes son los culpables de esta crisis?
Los culpables de esta crisis son todos los que intervinieron en el proceso. Los bancos por ser tan folclóricos al momento de dar un préstamo y no pedir suficientes garantías; los profesionales de Bienes Raíces por no asesorar bien a sus clientes y no darles una información adecuada y motivarse por una comisión; y por ultimo tenemos a los prestatarios por dejarse llevar por la ambición y no informarse adecuadamente.
¿Qué podemos hacer ahora?
Hay muchas personas que están listas para comprar su primer hogar, y el gobierno los esta incentivando a través de los prestamos asegurados del FHA. La primera barrera que las personas deben superar es mental, ya que piensan que no pueden o que no están listas, y lo que no saben es que el proceso de compra es mas fácil de lo que uno se pueda imaginar. Cuando se compra su primer hogar de una manera responsable y con sentido común, es una bendición para la familia que la compra y para los que la están vendiendo, ya que muchas personas están buscando ese comprador que los saque del Juicio Hipotecario (Foreclousure) que van a enfrentar.
Recuerda que comprar una casa o apartamento es la inversión más importante de la mayoría de las personas, infórmate bien y no te de pena preguntar. Además puedes aprovechar que las tasas de interés están bajas, y te permiten hacer compromisos con los bancos a largo plazo. Un préstamo fijo a 30 años no cambia en el tiempo, mientras tu renta puede subir en cualquier momento. También busca a un profesional que te brinde confianza, con experiencia y comprometido con la industria, preferiblemente que trabaje tiempo completo en el área de Bienes Raíces.
Si eres una persona trabajadora y responsable con las finanzas, no te de miedo comprar tu primera casa, el mundo es de los valientes y si otros lo han podido hacer tu también podrás. No te dejes desmotivar por las malas noticias y fíjate bien de que lado estas, si de la crisis del vendedor o de la oportunidad del comprador. Las oportunidades son de quienes las toman, acción es la clave y no esperes a ver que pasa, por que te vas a quedar como las guayaberas - POR FUERA.
Cortesía de "Conexion USA"
Por David Gomez
Mortgage Broker – Flex Mortgage Group
Los bienes raíces siempre han sido inversiones a mediano y largo plazo, donde los rendimientos aproximados han sido del 6% al 8% históricamente. Las propiedades pueden doblar su valor en un término de 10 a 15 años. Por eso si miramos la ciudad de Miami a mediados de los 80’S, donde se vivió una crisis en el sector de la vivienda, muchos la aprovecharon en aquel momento y compraron apartamentos en la playa por solo $60,000, y si hoy miramos el mismo apartamento, su valor se ha cuadruplicado con el tiempo.
En el próximo cuadro podremos ver un comparativo de un mercado especulativo vs uno Real. Tomaremos una propiedad de $100,000 y calcularemos rendimientos de especulación del 20% Anual contra crecimientos más realistas del 8% Anuales. Podremos ver la diferencia en el tiempo, y como cada año que pasa, el desbalance aumenta.
(El cuadro es un estimado, que busca mostrar la diferencia de un mercado especulativo contra uno real)
Valor Crecimientos del 20% Crecimientos del 8% Diferencia
$ 100,000
2002 $ 120,000 $ 108,000 $ 12,000
2003 $ 144,000 $ 116,640 $ 27,360
2004 $ 172,800 $ 125,971 $ 46,829
2005 $ 207,360 $ 136,049 $ 71,311
2006 $ 248,832 $ 146,933 $ 101,899
Ahora hagamos un análisis del cuadro anterior:
¿Que fue lo que paso en aquella época?
Muchas personas aprovecharon los préstamos de alto riesgo (subprime) donde los bancos le dieron la oportunidad a mucha gente de hacer préstamos con muy poca documentación, para comprar su primera, segunda y hasta su casa de inversión. Al comienzo de este proceso de especulación, la gente compro con cautela, pero al ver que sus propiedades subían vertiginosamente de valor, se entro en una euforia colectiva, y las personas pensaron que podían hacer dinero de una forma fácil y rápida. A partir de este momento muchos no se conformaron con tener su casa propia sino que se aventuraron a comprar más propiedades de las que podían mantener.
Otros no fueron bien asesorados y compraron con tasa variables en el tiempo y algunos tomaron los prestamos con amortización negativa, sin saber a que se enfrentarían en el futuro. Hoy muchas de estas personas están perdiendo sus propiedades.
¿Quiénes son los culpables de esta crisis?
Los culpables de esta crisis son todos los que intervinieron en el proceso. Los bancos por ser tan folclóricos al momento de dar un préstamo y no pedir suficientes garantías; los profesionales de Bienes Raíces por no asesorar bien a sus clientes y no darles una información adecuada y motivarse por una comisión; y por ultimo tenemos a los prestatarios por dejarse llevar por la ambición y no informarse adecuadamente.
¿Qué podemos hacer ahora?
Hay muchas personas que están listas para comprar su primer hogar, y el gobierno los esta incentivando a través de los prestamos asegurados del FHA. La primera barrera que las personas deben superar es mental, ya que piensan que no pueden o que no están listas, y lo que no saben es que el proceso de compra es mas fácil de lo que uno se pueda imaginar. Cuando se compra su primer hogar de una manera responsable y con sentido común, es una bendición para la familia que la compra y para los que la están vendiendo, ya que muchas personas están buscando ese comprador que los saque del Juicio Hipotecario (Foreclousure) que van a enfrentar.
Recuerda que comprar una casa o apartamento es la inversión más importante de la mayoría de las personas, infórmate bien y no te de pena preguntar. Además puedes aprovechar que las tasas de interés están bajas, y te permiten hacer compromisos con los bancos a largo plazo. Un préstamo fijo a 30 años no cambia en el tiempo, mientras tu renta puede subir en cualquier momento. También busca a un profesional que te brinde confianza, con experiencia y comprometido con la industria, preferiblemente que trabaje tiempo completo en el área de Bienes Raíces.
Si eres una persona trabajadora y responsable con las finanzas, no te de miedo comprar tu primera casa, el mundo es de los valientes y si otros lo han podido hacer tu también podrás. No te dejes desmotivar por las malas noticias y fíjate bien de que lado estas, si de la crisis del vendedor o de la oportunidad del comprador. Las oportunidades son de quienes las toman, acción es la clave y no esperes a ver que pasa, por que te vas a quedar como las guayaberas - POR FUERA.
Cortesía de "Conexion USA"
Por David Gomez
Mortgage Broker – Flex Mortgage Group
Thursday, March 20, 2008
Fundamentals Holding in Commercial Real Estate
WASHINGTON, March 12, 2008 - Commercial real estate market fundamentals are fairly stable, although investment is waning following a record year in 2007, according to the latest COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK of the National Association of Realtors®.
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said the commercial real estate market is holding essentially even. “We’re seeing no significant changes in vacancy rates or rent growth, so the fundamentals in commercial real estate still seem to be respectable,” he said. “Under normal circumstances, near-full occupancy coupled with positive rent growth would be of strong interest to investors, but we’re not seeing that. The credit crunch has filtered into the commercial real estate market.”
Patricia Nooney of St. Louis, chair of the Realtors® Commercial Alliance Committee, said the investment cycle appears to be turning. “It looks like investors are taking a wait-and-see attitude,” she said. “Even with fairly stable fundamentals and capital available from institutional investors, it appears investor confidence has declined, and some private investors have had problems obtaining financing. Commercial real estate investment set a new record in 2007, but now that we’re in a period of economic uncertainty, transaction volume is likely to decline.”
Investment in commercial real estate in 2007 was $427.2 billion, up 39.2 percent from the previous record of $306.8 billion in 2006; that total does not include transactions valued at less than $5 million or investments in the hospitality sector, based on analysis of data from Real Capital Analytics. NAR projects the investment dollar volume this year could drop by 30 to 40 percent, comparable to 2006 levels.
The NAR forecast in four major commercial sectors analyzes quarterly data for various tracked metro areas. The sectors are the office, industrial, retail and multifamily markets. Historic metro data were provided by Torto Wheaton Research and Real Capital Analytics.
Office Market
There is a lag factor in the current office market to backfill space by tenants who moved into newly constructed space. At the same time, concerns about the overall economy are causing some tenants to put expansion or relocation plans on hold. These present a challenge to timely and cost-effectively lease space in older office buildings.
Since the level of new supply will be greater this year, office vacancies are expected to rise to 13.3 percent in the fourth quarter from 12.5 percent in the last quarter of 2007. Annual rent growth in the office sector is forecast at 3.5 percent in 2008, following an 8.0 percent gain last year.
Estimates for the first quarter show areas with the lowest office vacancies include New York City; Honolulu; Long Island, N.Y.; and San Francisco, all with vacancy rates of 9.4 percent or less.
Net absorption of office space in 57 markets tracked, which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, should total 38.5 million square feet in 2008, down from 57.3 million last year.
Office building transaction volume in 2007 totaled a record $211.0 billion, compared with $133.5 billion for 2006. Equity funds accounted for 40 percent of office investment last year. Foreign investors purchased a record $17.7 billion in office buildings last year.
Industrial Market
Industrial activity remains strong in port and distribution hubs, with relative weakness around many manufacturing centers. International trade continues to play a pivotal role in industrial real estate.
Vacancy rates in the industrial sector will probably average 9.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, up from 9.4 percent in the same period last year. Annual rent growth is projected at 3.3 percent by the fourth quarter, down from 3.6 percent at the end of 2007.
The areas with the lowest industrial vacancies include Los Angeles; San Francisco; Tucson, Ariz.; Salt Lake City; Orange County, Calif.; and Portland, Ore., all with vacancy rates of 6.1 percent or less. Los Angeles is expected to remain a landlord’s market for the next four to five years.
Net absorption of industrial space in 58 markets tracked is likely to total 134.7 million square feet in 2008, up from 120.2 million last year. Industrial transaction volume in 2007 was a record $46.0 billion, compared with $38.9 billion in 2006.
Retail Market
The supply of new retail space is finally being held in check, although secondary markets might be growing because new space often follows population growth. As secondary and tertiary market populations continue to grow, it will become necessary to track those markets in addition to monitoring older retail centers.
Vacancy rates in the retail sector are expected to decline to 8.8 percent in the fourth quarter from 9.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007. Average retail rent is forecast to grow by 1.4 percent in 2008, compared with a 3.2 percent rise in 2007.
Retail markets with the lowest vacancies include Orange County, Calif.; San Francisco; San Jose, Calif.; Washington, D.C.; Las Vegas; Honolulu; and Los Angeles, all with vacancy rates of 5.9 percent or less.
Net absorption of retail space in 53 tracked markets is forecast at 24.8 million square feet this year, up from 11.1 million in 2007. Retail transaction volume in 2007 totaled a record $71.6 billion, up from $46.9 billion in 2006. REITs accounted for a quarter of retail transaction volume last year.
Multifamily Market
The apartment rental market – multifamily housing – is attracting risk-averse institutional investors. Of the record $98.6 billion spent in this sector last year, 40 percent of acquisitions were from institutional investors such as pension funds and life insurance companies. Private investors were equally active, accounting for another 40 percent of transactions.
Many potential first-time home buyers continue to rent, placing downward pressure on vacancy rates and upward pressure on rents. The number of new multilfamily units remains relatively high, due in part to the conversion of condo projects into rental buildings – notably in the Washington, D.C., area and South Florida.
Multifamily vacancy rates should average 4.8 percent in the fourth quarter, down from 5.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007. Average rent is seen to rise 5.3 percent in 2008, up from a 3.1 percent increase in 2007.
Multifamily net absorption is estimated at 245,800 units in 59 tracked metro areas in 2008, up from 234,400 last year.
The current national vacancy rate is 4.7 percent, below the 5.0 percent level which is considered landlord’s market. The areas with the lowest apartment vacancies include Northern New Jersey, San Jose, Miami, Salt Lake City and San Diego, all with vacancy rates of 2.9 percent or less.
The COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK is published by the NAR Research Division for the Realtors® Commercial Alliance. The RCA, formed by NAR in 1999, serves the needs of the commercial market and the commercial constituency within NAR, including commercial members; commercial committees, subcommittees and forums; commercial real estate boards and structures; and NAR affiliate organizations.
Organizations in the RCA include the CCIM Institute, the Institute of Real Estate Management, the Realtors® Land Institute, the Society of Industrial and Office Realtors®, and the Counselors of Real Estate. The RCA also provides commercial products and services.
More than 80,000 NAR members offer commercial services, and 60,000 of those are currently members of the RCA.
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
# # #
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said the commercial real estate market is holding essentially even. “We’re seeing no significant changes in vacancy rates or rent growth, so the fundamentals in commercial real estate still seem to be respectable,” he said. “Under normal circumstances, near-full occupancy coupled with positive rent growth would be of strong interest to investors, but we’re not seeing that. The credit crunch has filtered into the commercial real estate market.”
Patricia Nooney of St. Louis, chair of the Realtors® Commercial Alliance Committee, said the investment cycle appears to be turning. “It looks like investors are taking a wait-and-see attitude,” she said. “Even with fairly stable fundamentals and capital available from institutional investors, it appears investor confidence has declined, and some private investors have had problems obtaining financing. Commercial real estate investment set a new record in 2007, but now that we’re in a period of economic uncertainty, transaction volume is likely to decline.”
Investment in commercial real estate in 2007 was $427.2 billion, up 39.2 percent from the previous record of $306.8 billion in 2006; that total does not include transactions valued at less than $5 million or investments in the hospitality sector, based on analysis of data from Real Capital Analytics. NAR projects the investment dollar volume this year could drop by 30 to 40 percent, comparable to 2006 levels.
The NAR forecast in four major commercial sectors analyzes quarterly data for various tracked metro areas. The sectors are the office, industrial, retail and multifamily markets. Historic metro data were provided by Torto Wheaton Research and Real Capital Analytics.
Office Market
There is a lag factor in the current office market to backfill space by tenants who moved into newly constructed space. At the same time, concerns about the overall economy are causing some tenants to put expansion or relocation plans on hold. These present a challenge to timely and cost-effectively lease space in older office buildings.
Since the level of new supply will be greater this year, office vacancies are expected to rise to 13.3 percent in the fourth quarter from 12.5 percent in the last quarter of 2007. Annual rent growth in the office sector is forecast at 3.5 percent in 2008, following an 8.0 percent gain last year.
Estimates for the first quarter show areas with the lowest office vacancies include New York City; Honolulu; Long Island, N.Y.; and San Francisco, all with vacancy rates of 9.4 percent or less.
Net absorption of office space in 57 markets tracked, which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, should total 38.5 million square feet in 2008, down from 57.3 million last year.
Office building transaction volume in 2007 totaled a record $211.0 billion, compared with $133.5 billion for 2006. Equity funds accounted for 40 percent of office investment last year. Foreign investors purchased a record $17.7 billion in office buildings last year.
Industrial Market
Industrial activity remains strong in port and distribution hubs, with relative weakness around many manufacturing centers. International trade continues to play a pivotal role in industrial real estate.
Vacancy rates in the industrial sector will probably average 9.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, up from 9.4 percent in the same period last year. Annual rent growth is projected at 3.3 percent by the fourth quarter, down from 3.6 percent at the end of 2007.
The areas with the lowest industrial vacancies include Los Angeles; San Francisco; Tucson, Ariz.; Salt Lake City; Orange County, Calif.; and Portland, Ore., all with vacancy rates of 6.1 percent or less. Los Angeles is expected to remain a landlord’s market for the next four to five years.
Net absorption of industrial space in 58 markets tracked is likely to total 134.7 million square feet in 2008, up from 120.2 million last year. Industrial transaction volume in 2007 was a record $46.0 billion, compared with $38.9 billion in 2006.
Retail Market
The supply of new retail space is finally being held in check, although secondary markets might be growing because new space often follows population growth. As secondary and tertiary market populations continue to grow, it will become necessary to track those markets in addition to monitoring older retail centers.
Vacancy rates in the retail sector are expected to decline to 8.8 percent in the fourth quarter from 9.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007. Average retail rent is forecast to grow by 1.4 percent in 2008, compared with a 3.2 percent rise in 2007.
Retail markets with the lowest vacancies include Orange County, Calif.; San Francisco; San Jose, Calif.; Washington, D.C.; Las Vegas; Honolulu; and Los Angeles, all with vacancy rates of 5.9 percent or less.
Net absorption of retail space in 53 tracked markets is forecast at 24.8 million square feet this year, up from 11.1 million in 2007. Retail transaction volume in 2007 totaled a record $71.6 billion, up from $46.9 billion in 2006. REITs accounted for a quarter of retail transaction volume last year.
Multifamily Market
The apartment rental market – multifamily housing – is attracting risk-averse institutional investors. Of the record $98.6 billion spent in this sector last year, 40 percent of acquisitions were from institutional investors such as pension funds and life insurance companies. Private investors were equally active, accounting for another 40 percent of transactions.
Many potential first-time home buyers continue to rent, placing downward pressure on vacancy rates and upward pressure on rents. The number of new multilfamily units remains relatively high, due in part to the conversion of condo projects into rental buildings – notably in the Washington, D.C., area and South Florida.
Multifamily vacancy rates should average 4.8 percent in the fourth quarter, down from 5.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007. Average rent is seen to rise 5.3 percent in 2008, up from a 3.1 percent increase in 2007.
Multifamily net absorption is estimated at 245,800 units in 59 tracked metro areas in 2008, up from 234,400 last year.
The current national vacancy rate is 4.7 percent, below the 5.0 percent level which is considered landlord’s market. The areas with the lowest apartment vacancies include Northern New Jersey, San Jose, Miami, Salt Lake City and San Diego, all with vacancy rates of 2.9 percent or less.
The COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK is published by the NAR Research Division for the Realtors® Commercial Alliance. The RCA, formed by NAR in 1999, serves the needs of the commercial market and the commercial constituency within NAR, including commercial members; commercial committees, subcommittees and forums; commercial real estate boards and structures; and NAR affiliate organizations.
Organizations in the RCA include the CCIM Institute, the Institute of Real Estate Management, the Realtors® Land Institute, the Society of Industrial and Office Realtors®, and the Counselors of Real Estate. The RCA also provides commercial products and services.
More than 80,000 NAR members offer commercial services, and 60,000 of those are currently members of the RCA.
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
# # #
Friday, January 11, 2008
Commercial Real Estate Fundamentals Are Sound But Investment Slowing
Commercial Real Estate Fundamentals Are Sound But Investment Slowing
WASHINGTON, December 19, 2007 -
The fundamentals in commercial real estate remain healthy with only slight increases in vacancy rates expected for the office and industrial sectors during 2008, although credit restrictions have recently slowed overall investment activity, according to the latest COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK of the National Association of Realtors®.
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said commercial fundamentals are essentially sound. “Although vacancy rates remain relatively low for all sectors, they are expected to rise slightly in the office and industrial markets during the coming year because much of the space being absorbed is in high-quality buildings or is built-to-suit,” he said. “As a result, there is a fair amount of older space on the market, particularly in the industrial sector where obsolescence is a factor, although industrial rents are showing healthy gains. Vacancy rates in the retail and multifamily sectors are projected to tighten in 2008 with rents rising in all sectors.”
Yun said the credit crunch has been impacting the market over the last few months, but 2007 is already a record for commercial real estate investment. “Tighter credit conditions will limit individual commercial real estate investment deals moving forward,” he said. “Because capitalization rates are already very low, it is likely that commercial property prices will ease. The era of rapid commercial property price increases has ended.”
A record $325.0 billion was invested in commercial real estate in the first 10 months of 2007, up from $306.8 billion for all of 2006; that total does not include transactions valued at less than $5 million or investments in the hospitality sector, based on analysis of data from Real Capital Analytics.
Patricia Nooney of Saint Louis, chair of the Realtors® Commercial Alliance, said commercial real estate investment is expected to stay historically strong. “Even with the credit crunch there’s been no significant impact on institutional investors, and it’s unrealistic to set new records every year in a cyclical business,” she said. “There’s been a shift in investment activity to foreign buyers, who are taking advantage of the dollar’s decline relative to other currencies. With many areas showing favorable fundamentals, commercial property in the U.S. has become very attractive to foreign investors.”
The NAR forecast in four major commercial sectors analyzes quarterly data for various tracked metro areas. The sectors are the office, industrial, retail and multifamily markets. Historic metro data were provided by Torto Wheaton Research and Real Capital Analytics.
Office Market
With jobs still being created, the demand for office space remains positive and is helping to absorb the more than 30 million square feet of new space becoming available in the current quarter. Investment grade office properties with solid income streams will be the most in demand by institutional investors, equity funds and foreign investors.
Since not all of the vacated space is being back-filled or leased, office vacancies are forecast to rise to 13.2 percent by the fourth quarter of 2008 from an estimated 12.9 percent in the current quarter; it was 12.6 percent at the end of 2006. Annual rent growth in the office sector should be 8.0 percent this year and 2.0 percent in 2008, after rising 5.2 percent in 2006.
Projections for the fourth quarter show areas with the lowest office vacancies include New York City; Honolulu; Tucson, Ariz.; Long Island, N.Y.; Los Angeles; and Riverside, Calif., all with vacancy rates of 10.0 percent or less.
Net absorption of office space in 57 markets tracked, which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, is likely total 55.4 million square feet in 2007 and 43.0 million next year, but below the 81.2 million in 2006.
Office building transaction volume in the first 10 months of this year totaled a record $173.5 billion, compared with $133.5 billion for all of 2006. So far this year foreign investors purchased $12.5 billion worth of office properties, with buyers from the Middle East and Germany accounting for half of that volume.
Industrial Market
The weaker dollar is fueling an increase in exports, but leasing activity has declined in port distribution hubs, and vacancy rates in those markets are edging up; some users are building or renting in secondary markets.
With abundant land and relatively low concerns regarding site remediation, secondary and tertiary markets are experiencing greater interest. So far this year, almost 16 percent of industrial investment has taken place outside of the 58 primary markets tracked.
Vacancy rates in the industrial sector are projected to average 9.4 percent in the fourth quarter and 9.5 percent by the end of 2008; vacancies averaged 9.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006. Annual rent growth will more than double to 3.3 percent by the end of 2007 and is seen at 1.3 percent a year from now, compared with a 1.4 percent annual gain at the end of 2006.
The areas with the lowest industrial vacancies include Los Angeles; San Francisco; Tucson; Orange County, Calif.; Portland, Ore.; and Las Vegas, all with vacancy rates of 6.1 percent or less.
Net absorption of industrial space in 58 markets tracked is expected total 127.4 million square feet in 2007 and 144.0 million next year, down from 205.4 million in 2006.
Industrial transaction volume in the first 10 months of 2007 was $35.8 billion, compared with $38.9 billion for all of 2006.
Retail Market
Even with a decline in consumer confidence, retail vacancy rates remain fairly stable. Declining production of new space will help improve fundamentals in this sector during 2008.
Vacancy rates in the retail sector will probably rise to 8.9 percent in the current quarter from 8.0 percent at the end of last year, and then ease to 8.6 percent by the fourth quarter of 2008. Average retail rent should grow by 2.2 percent this year and 1.9 percent in 2008, after rising 3.9 percent in 2006.
Retail markets with the lowest vacancies include San Francisco; Orange County, Calif.; San Jose, Calif.; Ventura County, Calif.; Washington, D.C.; and San Diego, all with vacancy rates of 5.5 percent or less.
Net absorption of retail space in 53 tracked markets is forecast at 18.6 million square feet for 2007 and 24.7 million next year, up from 10.5 million in 2006.
Retail transaction volume in the first 10 months of this year totaled $52.9 billion, exceeding the $46.9 billion for all of 2006. The Southeast is the most sought-out region this year.
Multifamily Market
The apartment rental market – multifamily housing – is experiencing increased demand from the slowdown in home sales. With a rising population and a growing number of households, vacancies are tightening and rents are rising.
Multifamily vacancy rates are projected to average 5.4 percent in the current quarter, down from 5.9 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, and then continue to decline to 5.1 percent by the end of 2008. Average rent is likely to rise 3.1 percent for 2007 and 3.8 percent next year, following a 4.1 percent increase in 2006.
Multifamily net absorption is expected to total 234,400 units in 59 tracked metro areas in 2007, below the 229,500 last year, but should rise to 245,800 in 2008.
The areas with the lowest apartment vacancies include Northern New Jersey, Salt Lake City, San Jose, San Diego, Nashville and Philadelphia, all with vacancy rates of 3.3 percent or less.
Multifamily transactions in the first 10 months of this year totaled $62.3 billion, compared with $87.4 billion for all of 2006. The sale of buildings originally constructed as condos are being sold to multifamily investors in markets like Washington, D.C., and South Florida. Many markets have seen condo “for sale” signs change to “apartment for lease” signs almost overnight. Some condominium complexes are being converted into office buildings, and others are becoming mixed-use projects.
The COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK is published by the NAR Research Division for the Realtors® Commercial Alliance. The RCA, formed by NAR in 1999, serves the needs of the commercial market and the commercial constituency within NAR, including commercial members; commercial committees, subcommittees and forums; commercial real estate boards and structures; and NAR affiliate organizations.
Organizations in the RCA include the CCIM Institute, the Institute of Real Estate Management, the Realtors® Land Institute, the Society of Industrial and Office Realtors®, and the Counselors of Real Estate. The RCA also provides commercial products and services.
Nearly 140,000 NAR members offer commercial services, and 73,000 of those are currently members of the RCA.
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
# # #
The next Commercial Leading Indicator index will be February 20; the next commercial real estate market forecast is scheduled for March 12.
Jose M Serrano
' tel: 305-635-5000 2 fax: 305-635-5600
'Cel: 305.283.0492
- email: jose.serrano@svn.com
www.svn.com
This office independently owned and operated
12001 SW 128th Ct. Suite # 104
Miami, Fl 33186
"Maximum Competition equals Maximum Value"
WASHINGTON, December 19, 2007 -
The fundamentals in commercial real estate remain healthy with only slight increases in vacancy rates expected for the office and industrial sectors during 2008, although credit restrictions have recently slowed overall investment activity, according to the latest COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK of the National Association of Realtors®.
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said commercial fundamentals are essentially sound. “Although vacancy rates remain relatively low for all sectors, they are expected to rise slightly in the office and industrial markets during the coming year because much of the space being absorbed is in high-quality buildings or is built-to-suit,” he said. “As a result, there is a fair amount of older space on the market, particularly in the industrial sector where obsolescence is a factor, although industrial rents are showing healthy gains. Vacancy rates in the retail and multifamily sectors are projected to tighten in 2008 with rents rising in all sectors.”
Yun said the credit crunch has been impacting the market over the last few months, but 2007 is already a record for commercial real estate investment. “Tighter credit conditions will limit individual commercial real estate investment deals moving forward,” he said. “Because capitalization rates are already very low, it is likely that commercial property prices will ease. The era of rapid commercial property price increases has ended.”
A record $325.0 billion was invested in commercial real estate in the first 10 months of 2007, up from $306.8 billion for all of 2006; that total does not include transactions valued at less than $5 million or investments in the hospitality sector, based on analysis of data from Real Capital Analytics.
Patricia Nooney of Saint Louis, chair of the Realtors® Commercial Alliance, said commercial real estate investment is expected to stay historically strong. “Even with the credit crunch there’s been no significant impact on institutional investors, and it’s unrealistic to set new records every year in a cyclical business,” she said. “There’s been a shift in investment activity to foreign buyers, who are taking advantage of the dollar’s decline relative to other currencies. With many areas showing favorable fundamentals, commercial property in the U.S. has become very attractive to foreign investors.”
The NAR forecast in four major commercial sectors analyzes quarterly data for various tracked metro areas. The sectors are the office, industrial, retail and multifamily markets. Historic metro data were provided by Torto Wheaton Research and Real Capital Analytics.
Office Market
With jobs still being created, the demand for office space remains positive and is helping to absorb the more than 30 million square feet of new space becoming available in the current quarter. Investment grade office properties with solid income streams will be the most in demand by institutional investors, equity funds and foreign investors.
Since not all of the vacated space is being back-filled or leased, office vacancies are forecast to rise to 13.2 percent by the fourth quarter of 2008 from an estimated 12.9 percent in the current quarter; it was 12.6 percent at the end of 2006. Annual rent growth in the office sector should be 8.0 percent this year and 2.0 percent in 2008, after rising 5.2 percent in 2006.
Projections for the fourth quarter show areas with the lowest office vacancies include New York City; Honolulu; Tucson, Ariz.; Long Island, N.Y.; Los Angeles; and Riverside, Calif., all with vacancy rates of 10.0 percent or less.
Net absorption of office space in 57 markets tracked, which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, is likely total 55.4 million square feet in 2007 and 43.0 million next year, but below the 81.2 million in 2006.
Office building transaction volume in the first 10 months of this year totaled a record $173.5 billion, compared with $133.5 billion for all of 2006. So far this year foreign investors purchased $12.5 billion worth of office properties, with buyers from the Middle East and Germany accounting for half of that volume.
Industrial Market
The weaker dollar is fueling an increase in exports, but leasing activity has declined in port distribution hubs, and vacancy rates in those markets are edging up; some users are building or renting in secondary markets.
With abundant land and relatively low concerns regarding site remediation, secondary and tertiary markets are experiencing greater interest. So far this year, almost 16 percent of industrial investment has taken place outside of the 58 primary markets tracked.
Vacancy rates in the industrial sector are projected to average 9.4 percent in the fourth quarter and 9.5 percent by the end of 2008; vacancies averaged 9.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006. Annual rent growth will more than double to 3.3 percent by the end of 2007 and is seen at 1.3 percent a year from now, compared with a 1.4 percent annual gain at the end of 2006.
The areas with the lowest industrial vacancies include Los Angeles; San Francisco; Tucson; Orange County, Calif.; Portland, Ore.; and Las Vegas, all with vacancy rates of 6.1 percent or less.
Net absorption of industrial space in 58 markets tracked is expected total 127.4 million square feet in 2007 and 144.0 million next year, down from 205.4 million in 2006.
Industrial transaction volume in the first 10 months of 2007 was $35.8 billion, compared with $38.9 billion for all of 2006.
Retail Market
Even with a decline in consumer confidence, retail vacancy rates remain fairly stable. Declining production of new space will help improve fundamentals in this sector during 2008.
Vacancy rates in the retail sector will probably rise to 8.9 percent in the current quarter from 8.0 percent at the end of last year, and then ease to 8.6 percent by the fourth quarter of 2008. Average retail rent should grow by 2.2 percent this year and 1.9 percent in 2008, after rising 3.9 percent in 2006.
Retail markets with the lowest vacancies include San Francisco; Orange County, Calif.; San Jose, Calif.; Ventura County, Calif.; Washington, D.C.; and San Diego, all with vacancy rates of 5.5 percent or less.
Net absorption of retail space in 53 tracked markets is forecast at 18.6 million square feet for 2007 and 24.7 million next year, up from 10.5 million in 2006.
Retail transaction volume in the first 10 months of this year totaled $52.9 billion, exceeding the $46.9 billion for all of 2006. The Southeast is the most sought-out region this year.
Multifamily Market
The apartment rental market – multifamily housing – is experiencing increased demand from the slowdown in home sales. With a rising population and a growing number of households, vacancies are tightening and rents are rising.
Multifamily vacancy rates are projected to average 5.4 percent in the current quarter, down from 5.9 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, and then continue to decline to 5.1 percent by the end of 2008. Average rent is likely to rise 3.1 percent for 2007 and 3.8 percent next year, following a 4.1 percent increase in 2006.
Multifamily net absorption is expected to total 234,400 units in 59 tracked metro areas in 2007, below the 229,500 last year, but should rise to 245,800 in 2008.
The areas with the lowest apartment vacancies include Northern New Jersey, Salt Lake City, San Jose, San Diego, Nashville and Philadelphia, all with vacancy rates of 3.3 percent or less.
Multifamily transactions in the first 10 months of this year totaled $62.3 billion, compared with $87.4 billion for all of 2006. The sale of buildings originally constructed as condos are being sold to multifamily investors in markets like Washington, D.C., and South Florida. Many markets have seen condo “for sale” signs change to “apartment for lease” signs almost overnight. Some condominium complexes are being converted into office buildings, and others are becoming mixed-use projects.
The COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK is published by the NAR Research Division for the Realtors® Commercial Alliance. The RCA, formed by NAR in 1999, serves the needs of the commercial market and the commercial constituency within NAR, including commercial members; commercial committees, subcommittees and forums; commercial real estate boards and structures; and NAR affiliate organizations.
Organizations in the RCA include the CCIM Institute, the Institute of Real Estate Management, the Realtors® Land Institute, the Society of Industrial and Office Realtors®, and the Counselors of Real Estate. The RCA also provides commercial products and services.
Nearly 140,000 NAR members offer commercial services, and 73,000 of those are currently members of the RCA.
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
# # #
The next Commercial Leading Indicator index will be February 20; the next commercial real estate market forecast is scheduled for March 12.
Jose M Serrano
' tel: 305-635-5000 2 fax: 305-635-5600
'Cel: 305.283.0492
- email: jose.serrano@svn.com
www.svn.com
This office independently owned and operated
12001 SW 128th Ct. Suite # 104
Miami, Fl 33186
"Maximum Competition equals Maximum Value"
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